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How to be relevant in the future world dominated by AI

How can we manage to adapt future generations to the foreseeable greater inequality? How can we ensure that this transition takes place in a way that is not harmful to all?

Here, there are no magic formulas, but above all it is very important to be able to adapt educational models. In other words, the future of work will not require people capable of memorizing or having great mental calculation skills. Machines will be able to do that even better than we can. What the future will need is people capable of dealing with unpredictable problems, of adapting their tasks to new day-to-day needs. The workers of the future must be flexible, able to innovate and take advantage of the enormous benefits that technology will offer us.
Let’s just say, we will need to adapt our educational models towards an approach where we can better collaborate with machines, and be able to better exploit our human capabilities.

Cookie Clicker Take 2

OMG! So much wasted time again. Below is my last save. And I was so close to finishing it. I guess I couldn’t bring my self to finish the game or I’d never come back.

But this run is primed for the final achievement, to win you will need to get

  • A golden cookie with the building special (any really)
  • Un-Freeze the garden
  • Turn On the golden switch (, it is a percentage of current click so will have to be enabled before getting all the building specials)
  • Enable Sugar Frenzy
  • 1st and 2nd loans (could do third as well)
  • Check the Muridal and Mokalsium in the temple to see what gets the better result
  • The Godzamok MUST be in slot 1 and the last step is to sell all farms to portals at the last step
  • Then use magic for Force the hand of fate with the golden cookies for 7,8,9 and 10 below (will have to sell wizard towers to get 2 FTHOF goes, then refill with sugar lump and go again)
  • Do an elder pledge because the wrinklers don’t help
  • Then click like crazy for about 5 seconds after selling the buildings

This will get the following 60 x 60 x 60 (building specials from the golden cookie and 2 x FHOF ones) x 7 (frenzy from FHOF) x 777 (click frenzy from FHOF) x 3 (Sugar Frenzy) x 2.5 (golden switch) x 2.67 (un freezing the garden) x 1.5 (loan 1) x 2 (loan 2) x 51 (selling the buildings just before clicking with Godzamok)

This will give the total of 3,599,455,141,800 x the base cookies per click (currently at 23.1 Quindecillion) which would be roughly 83 Novemdecillion per click, so with 10 Clicks per second for 5 seconds (it would be 10, but it will really only be 5 seconds after you get to clicking the cookie) you should get roughly 4.1 Vigintillion cookies.

I know this will work as I “almost” got it in the last run 179 Novemdecillion cookies

The biggest waste of time was getting to the Liquid Assets $10 Million profit in the stock game. It just takes Damn ages, I would make between $100k – $200k per day. This was just shit and not worth the effort to do manually. I think there are a plug in to help, but I got here with no plugins, and hence can say that this is the shittest bit of the game.

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Things that helped make this happen

https://coderpatsy.bitbucket.io/cookies/cookies.html

http://fthof-planner.s3-website.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/

The bull thesis

I’m not a financial adviser and this isn’t financial advice. I just have a knack for explaining things and lots of people have asked about this topic so I thought I’d share my own personal thoughts.

The bull thesis

To date, the GME play has been pretty simple: buy and hold and wait for the squeeze, whether that comes in hours, days, or weeks. Try not to have a heart attack during the intermittent gamma squeezes, keep your hands diamond strong during the manipulated downward spikes, and buy baby buy.

It’s rapidly becoming apparent that we will soon enter the GME endgame. Before you can come up with an exit strategy or, if you’re still on the fence, decide whether to jump in, you need to form an opinion about the GME bull thesis, without considering the short squeeze. Your thoughts on the bull thesis will dictate how you play it from here on out.

One braindead simple way to calculate a fair stock price for a company is to use a “times-revenue” valuation. You take the company’s revenue ($6.466B in 2020) and multiply by some magic number (often 0.5 for low-growth companies and 2 for high-growth companies), then divide by the float (number of shares available to trade, 50.65M). A times-revenue multiplier of 0.5 gives a GME stock price of $64, while a multiplier of 2 gives $255.

This isn’t a particularly sophisticated method but whatever, I’m not a particularly sophisticated investor.

Working backwards, if Melvin Capital thinks that GME is overpriced at $20 then a times-revenue valuation would suggest a multiplier of 0.16. That’s extraordinarily low for a retail business. If you applied that multiplier to Best Buy ($43B revenue in 2020, 231.59M float) you would get a stock price of $30. Best Buy currently trades for $115, which works out to a much more reasonable multiplier of 0.62.

What multiplier is correct? Well, the bulls point out:

  • Ryan Cohen (13% stake in GME, sits on the board) has a great e-commerce success story with Chewy, his previous company.
  • Three new successful e-commerce board members from Cohen’s firm were added to the board in 2020.
  • Despite being a brick-and-mortar business and the pandemic, Gamestop’s balance sheet isn’t bad. They have approx. $550M in debt, but more than that in cash (net cash positive). They have minimal risk of default or bankruptcy in the near future, even without any change to company direction.
  • Their traditional core business of game and console sales is not shrinking as fast as many people expected, with major new consoles still supporting optical discs and digital game downloads not accelerating as fast as feared, possibly due to stagnation in the ISP industry. So even if Cohen and his board seats take a long time to roll out new changes, the company is in little danger of any sudden spiral.

So is Melvin right and GME is a dead-end company with no growth potential and should be valued with a times-revenue multiplier vastly below its competitors? Or is it more appropriate to think of it as a brand new business, being spring-boarded off the healthy books of an existing brand by a successful e-commerce businessman alongside a revamped board?

How you judge that determines your exit strategy.

Exit strategy 1: Just along for the ride

Maybe you don’t care at all about GME’s balance sheet or Cohen’s planned turnaround, you bought a couple shares on a whim to be part of a unique movement. You don’t intend to be a long-term Gamestop shareholder nor do you really care if you miss out on the highest peaks, so long as you make a few dollars and get to say you were part of the squeeze.

If I were this person, what would I do? I’d pick a number between 0 and 3 that I feel represents my confidence in the retail market’s current expectation for Cohen and GME, and multiply it by 128. I’d submit a limit sell order for all my shares at that share price.

Exit strategy 2: Pants-shitting fear

You’ve got a handful of shares and maybe some options and you’re up big. You don’t know much about squeezes or fundamentals or greeks and every time there’s a dip and the stock gets halted you shit your pants and your finger hovers over the sell button. But then the price jumps up and you wipe the drenching sweat off your face and promise to hold firm next time.

If I were this person, what would I do? I’d sell all my options that expire sooner than 30 days at market open to reduce the number of pairs of pants I’m going through. I’d keep all my shares and longer-dated options until the news comes out that the shorts are being liquidated. And I’m not watching hedge fund managers get on Fox Business or CNBC or whatever, I’m following WSB and Twitter for rapid fire updates about short volume. If the short volume as reported by WSB posters drops below, say, 50% I’m selling everything and getting out. I might also pick a maximum times-revenue multiplier (something pretty high, like 4 or 5) and use that for a limit sell for shares.

Exit strategy 3: Diamond hands

You’ve got bigger balls than most, and this isn’t your first time dumping a significant fraction of your net worth into a company whose financials you’ve never looked at. You want to ride it to the peak, if at all possible, and you want to impress the pants shitters and the weak-kneed with your maximum gains. You are ok with increasing your cost basis to squeeze out extra tendies on the way to the top.

If I were this person, what would I do? I’d sell my weeklies on open tomorrow and immediately plow every dollar of those 20-bagger returns into shares. If my longer-dated options were purchased at extreme IV I’d do the same for them, otherwise I’d let them ride. I wouldn’t sell a single share until the final squeeze, when news comes out that Melvin is done, and then I’d unload (in my pants). See you on the moon, brother.

Exit strategy 4: u/DeepFuckingValue

IF HE’S STILL IN I’M STILL IN

FAQ 1: Is it too late to get in?

The best way to judge this is by looking at the exit strategies. Which person are you? If you’re (1) then sure, buy a share or two to be part of a once-in-a-decade event, but think of it as a fun expense – a ticket to ride the squeeze train – not an investment. If you’re (2) then hell yeah buy those shares baby but avoid options unless there’s a dip. If you’re (3) or (4) then you’re already in and lying to your wife about how deep.

FAQ 2: Was that the squeeze?! Is it over?

This must get posted every time there’s a gamma squeeze. It’s midmorning and price suddenly launches into the stratosphere, trading halts, and it crashes back down. No, that wasn’t the squeeze. Gamma squeezes occur when options prices are rising (due to sudden increased options buying or volatility) faster than market makers can hedge. They’re good to get your heart racing but a short squeeze is slower and more stable.

FAQ 3: How high will it go during the squeeze?

Who knows. $500? $1000? $2000? There’s really no way to know. If you have the stones to get those max tendies then you should focus on listening to the emerging news about Melvin Capital and Citadel rather than watching the price. Sell when they’re covering and not a moment before. That will be the peak.

FAQ 4: How long will this take?

Could be tomorrow morning, could be tomorrow afternoon, could be next week. At the rate that shorts are losing money it won’t be much longer than that. If you’re not in yet, this is the final boarding call.

FAQ 5: Who will buy our shares at the peak?

The idea behind selling at the peak isn’t to sell your shares to another retail trader, but to sell your shares to the desperate short sellers who are forced by their prime brokers to liquidate their positions at any cost. That’s the difference between a perfectly legal and time-honored short squeeze and a pump-and-dump. This isn’t about irrationally driving the price upwards with the hopes of selling to a bigger idiot, it’s about buying and holding and waiting for the shorts to crack and beg us to sell to them.

FAQ 6: What is the next stock?

Get this thought out of your head. Yeah you just joined WSB and made a few bucks and now you think you found yourself an investment club. No. This is a forum for folks to share their risky trade ideas, not a place to coordinate to manipulate the market. Yes, at the moment the consensus is that we can make a boatload of money off of dumbass hedge funds, but think of it less like a pack of draft horses following a path and more like a room of angry, shitting monkeys who happen, for the time being, to be throwing their shit in the same direction.

Taken from reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l5x0fc/gme_endgame/

The Game of Life

One of the latest thoughts is that life is a game. and that there are big quests like school, marriage, house and kids. And there are smaller side quests like overseas holidays, house renovations and cleaning all the things. It is just that I feel that I have finished all the major/big quests and the game is now pretty crappy and boring. What is a major quest in the game of life that I can do now?

Here we are and I’m still lost

Hello my old friend,

I went away for quite some time with things that have been happening and not happening. It is basically — > work –> sleep –> repeat with some random things chucked in between like a trip or relaxing but always surface level and NONE OF IT MEANS SHIT.

I just don’t know what I’m doing with my life and what the point of any of it is. I’m not here to say that you will find your dreams if you keep looking or if you think hard enough you will find meaning. Mainly because I keep going from “There is no meaning” to “I haven’t found a meaning”.

It gets depressing some times. What is the point.

anyway I recently saw a comment which sounds like something worth trying to find an answer.

Want a BIG HINT on what you could do with your life? 
 
Look at what you struggle with most, overcome that struggle, then help others do the same.
 
It doesn’t have to be for your work, but I guarantee that will give a lot of meaning and fulfillment to your life. “

So the next step for me is to look inwards, find what i’m struggling with and overcome it. Yay, how hard can that be. I still feel lost.

A Quote on How To Be Successful in Business

Technology is an incredible enabler. This is no more present than in Silicon Valley, which lives and breathes technology. But the dirty little secret to Silicon Valley is that probably 90 percent of the companies that start in this region fail, and not because they’re poorly engineered or their technology’s not interesting or right.

It’s usually because nobody really needs the technology. If you want to be successful in business, you have to pay attention to the technology and what it enables you to do, but you also have to do it in the service of a market need.

Automate your job or perrish

If your job is process oriented, for example, calculating make-goods for improperly filled orders, your whole department will be automated soon. Don’t let the pink slip surprise you. If you analyze numbers in Excel, craft a narrative about them, and move them around spreadsheets, your employable days are numbered. Any white-collar job you can learn to do in a few days is threatened – even if it takes a lifetime to master. (Poker takes minutes to learn and a lifetime to master. So professional pokers players are at risk. Please read “Can Alexa Lie?” for details.)

FOMO Is Driving Adoption

Fear of missing out (FOMO) is motivating tech-savvy CEOs to get super serious about data and deploy machine learning systems across their enterprises as quickly as possible. No CEO wants to learn that their goods or services are losing market share because competitive offerings (built by both human and robot workers) are much cheaper. Every CEO we work with is trying to automate everything they can. Soon, machine learning systems will become “table stakes” for every company – department by department, system by system, function by function. You might not recognize it’s happening until you’re laid off.

Man/Machine Partnerships

Industrial-scale automation is coming, but it’s not here yet. In the interim, some work will be fully automated and some will still require human expertise, due to limits of evolving technology, or because of cost/benefit, or simply because humans still need to be involved. No matter how this unfolds, you must personally harness the power of machine learning, robots, automation, AI, cognitive computing, data science tools, etc., by partnering with them. To survive and prosper as robots take over the business world, you will need to become the best man/machine partner of your peers. Here’s how to start.

Step One: Invent the Future

Consider your job. Think about all the ways it may be done in the future. Anything is possible. Imagine AI is smarter than you are. Imagine robots can do anything. Imagine you are tasked with automating your job, every keystroke, every phone call, every in-person meeting – everything.

Write down which areas will most likely be automated first. It may only be small parts of the process. List everything you do and all your responsibilities, and write down how they will be done when machines rule the world.

Step Two: Start Reading

Read everything you can about data, data science, machine learning, AI, and automation. Everything you need to know is available online. Find every company that is working on automating cognitive tasks associated with your business. Look for partners, vendors, consultants, well-read bloggers – anyone who can help you understand what you need to do. Immerse yourself in the subject. It is your new full-time job.

Step Three: Be “That Person”

This is the hardest step. Dig deep. Become “that person” in your department who “knows this stuff.” Figure out where to use data for better decision-making and what tools to use to automate certain tasks, and become expert in them. Your current lack of knowledge is unimportant. You can learn, so learn!

Step Four: Propose a Test Project

After you have figured out which vendors, partners, processes, tools, consultants, and colleagues need to be combined to accomplish your test project, build a short, uncomplicated presentation (if needed) to articulate what you will try to accomplish and what benchmarks you will use to measure success. You will be surprised at how quickly management says yes. If management does not say yes, you are working in a company that is not going to exist much longer, so look for a job where you get permission to use your new knowledge.

Step Five: Show Your Results

Build another presentation that describes the problem you identified and solved with data science, data scientific research, machine learning, and the automation or the automated systems you built, conscripted, used, partnered with, purchased, etc. Make it super easy to understand and obvious.

Step Six: Revel in Your Success and Repeat

With your initial success will come a “hallway handle,” something that gets thrown around by two coworkers passing in the hall, like, “Hey, what are you working on?” “Joe’s data project.” Embrace it, own it, love it. It’s your pathway to gainful employment for the next decade and beyond.

This Will Work

One of the biggest problems facing white-collar workers today is a misunderstanding of man/machine partnerships. There is very little chance that robots (as we are defining them here) will take every white-collar job in the next few years. They don’t have to. They only have to take yours.

The way to prosper in an ever-more-automated world is to create your competitive advantage by becoming the best possible man/machine partner. If you let the machines do what they do best, combine that with what you do best, and, most importantly, demonstrate the value of you and your machine skills to management, you will not only survive the attack of the machines, you will be stronger for it.

It Is Time To Run In The Feilds Of Heaven

Driving home tonight I came across a rabbit that was hit by a car. It was still alive and was valiantly trying to hop off the road. But this rabbit was not well, its back was broken and couldn’t get away.

It was scared and terrified; and try with all its might, it could only use it front paws to drag itself along.

I slowed the car as I approached and stopped in front of the rabbit. I got out to see if there was anything I could do. I reached down and carefully picked it up. It was so warm and so soft. It wasn’t struggling like it had been not 5 seconds before. There was nothing I could do, the rabbit passed away in my hands as I carried it off.

I took the rabbit to into the scrub to a near by fence with high grass and placed him there. I looked down and I just felt sad.

The last thing that poor rabbit felt was terror.

I walked back to my car and sat there. Looking in the direction of the rabbit. All I could think was “It is time for you to run in the feilds of heaven” I was upset, I was on the verge of tears, I haven’t been so sad in many years.

This sucks

A better question to ask yourself instead of “How do I get ahead?”

This is an excellent article about how your struggles determine your success and is well worth the read.

Everybody wants what feels good. Everyone wants to live a carefree, happy and easy life, to fall in love and have amazing sex and relationships, to look perfect and make money and be popular and well-respected and admired and a total baller to the point that people part like the Red Sea when you walk into the room.

Everyone would like that—it’s easy to like that. 

If I ask you, “What do you want out of life?” and you say something like, “I want to be happy and have a great family and a job I like,” it’s so ubiquitous that it doesn’t even mean anything. 

A more interesting question, a question that perhaps you’ve never considered before, is what pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for? Because that seems to be a greater determinant of how our lives turn out.

Everybody wants to have an amazing job and financial independence—but not everyone wants to suffer through 60-hour work weeks, long commutes, obnoxious paperwork, to navigate arbitrary corporate hierarchies and the blasé confines of an infinite cubicle hell. People want to be rich without the risk, without the sacrifice, without the delayed gratification necessary to accumulate wealth.

Everybody wants to have great sex and an awesome relationship—but not everyone is willing to go through the tough conversations, the awkward silences, the hurt feelings and the emotional psychodrama to get there. And so they settle. They settle and wonder “What if?” for years and years and until the question morphs from “What if?” into “Was that it?” And when the lawyers go home and the alimony check is in the mail they say, “What was that for?” if not for their lowered standards and expectations 20 years prior, then what for?

Because happiness requires struggle. The positive is the side effect of handling the negative. You can only avoid negative experiences for so long before they come roaring back to life.

At the core of all human behavior, our needs are more or less similar. Positive experience is easy to handle. It’s negative experience that we all, by definition, struggle with. Therefore, what we get out of life is not determined by the good feelings we desire but by what bad feelings we’re willing and able to sustain to get us to those good feelings.

People want an amazing physique. But you don’t end up with one unless you legitimately appreciate the pain and physical stress that comes with living inside a gym for hour upon hour, unless you love calculating and calibrating the food you eat, planning your life out in tiny plate-sized portions.

People want to start their own business or become financially independent. But you don’t end up a successful entrepreneur unless you find a way to appreciate the risk, the uncertainty, the repeated failures, and working insane hours on something you have no idea whether will be successful or not.

People want a partner, a spouse. But you don’t end up attracting someone amazing without appreciating the emotional turbulence that comes with weathering rejections, building the sexual tension that never gets released, and staring blankly at a phone that never rings. It’s part of the game of love. You can’t win if you don’t play.

What determines your success isn’t “What do you want to enjoy?” The question is, “What pain do you want to sustain?” The quality of your life is not determined by the quality of your positive experiences but the quality of your negative experiences. And to get good at dealing with negative experiences is to get good at dealing with life.

There’s a lot of crappy advice out there that says, “You’ve just got to want it enough!”

Everybody wants something. And everybody wants something enough. They just aren’t aware of what it is they want, or rather, what they want “enough.”

Because if you want the benefits of something in life, you have to also want the costs. If you want the beach body, you have to want the sweat, the soreness, the early mornings, and the hunger pangs. If you want the yacht, you have to also want the late nights, the risky business moves, and the possibility of pissing off a person or ten thousand.

If you find yourself wanting something month after month, year after year, yet nothing happens and you never come any closer to it, then maybe what you actually want is a fantasy, an idealization, an image and a false promise. Maybe what you want isn’t what you want, you just enjoy wanting. Maybe you don’t actually want it at all.

Sometimes I ask people, “How do you choose to suffer?” These people tilt their heads and look at me like I have twelve noses. But I ask because that tells me far more about you than your desires and fantasies. Because you have to choose something. You can’t have a pain-free life. It can’t all be roses and unicorns. And ultimately that’s the hard question that matters. Pleasure is an easy question. And pretty much all of us have similar answers. The more interesting question is the pain. What is the pain that you want to sustain?

That answer will actually get you somewhere. It’s the question that can change your life. It’s what makes me me and you you. It’s what defines us and separates us and ultimately brings us together.

For most of my adolescence and young adulthood, I fantasized about being a musician — a rock star, in particular. Any badass guitar song I heard, I would always close my eyes and envision myself up on stage playing it to the screams of the crowd, people absolutely losing their minds to my sweet finger-noodling. This fantasy could keep me occupied for hours on end. The fantasizing continued up through college, even after I dropped out of music school and stopped playing seriously. But even then it was never a question of if I’d ever be up playing in front of screaming crowds, but when. I was biding my time before I could invest the proper amount of time and effort into getting out there and making it work. First, I needed to finish school. Then, I needed to make money. Then, I needed to find the time. Then … and then nothing.

Despite fantasizing about this for over half of my life, the reality never came. And it took me a long time and a lot of negative experiences to finally figure out why: I didn’t actually want it.

I was in love with the result—the image of me on stage, people cheering, me rocking out, pouring my heart into what I’m playing—but I wasn’t in love with the process. And because of that, I failed at it. Repeatedly. Hell, I didn’t even try hard enough to fail at it. I hardly tried at all.

The daily drudgery of practicing, the logistics of finding a group and rehearsing, the pain of finding gigs and actually getting people to show up and give a shit. The broken strings, the blown tube amp, hauling 40 pounds of gear to and from rehearsals with no car. It’s a mountain of a dream and a mile-high climb to the top. And what it took me a long time to discover is that I didn’t like to climb much. I just liked to imagine the top.

Our culture would tell me that I’ve somehow failed myself, that I’m a quitter or a loser. Self-help would say that I either wasn’t courageous enough, determined enough or I didn’t believe in myself enough. The entrepreneurial/start-up crowd would tell me that I chickened out on my dream and gave in to my conventional social conditioning. I’d be told to do affirmations or join a mastermind group or manifest or something.

But the truth is far less interesting than that: I thought I wanted something, but it turns out I didn’t. End of story.

I wanted the reward and not the struggle. I wanted the result and not the process. I was in love not with the fight but only the victory. And life doesn’t work that way.

Who you are is defined by the values you are willing to struggle for. People who enjoy the struggles of a gym are the ones who get in good shape. People who enjoy long workweeks and the politics of the corporate ladder are the ones who move up it. People who enjoy the stresses and uncertainty of the starving artist lifestyle are ultimately the ones who live it and make it.

This is not a call for willpower or “grit.” This is not another admonishment of “no pain, no gain.”

This is the most simple and basic component of life: our struggles determine our successes. So choose your struggles wisely, my friend.

This post originally appeared on MarkManson.net